Strong 2035 targets are essential for China’s new NDCs to align with the Paris Agreement. By committing to significant emission reductions, China can lead global efforts to mitigate climate change and set a powerful example for other nations. Environmental engineers and professionals working with China have a pivotal role to play in this transition, driving innovation and implementation of sustainable practices that will help achieve these ambitious goals. The world is watching, and China’s actions will undoubtedly shape the future of global climate policy.

China’s Current Commitments and Rapid Clean-Energy Growth

China has committed to peaking its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. These commitments are foundational, but the upcoming 2035 targets will define the speed and scope of emission reductions post-2030, driving China’s energy transition and demonstrating the credibility of its neutrality goal.

Notably, China’s clean-energy sector has experienced a rapid boom, surpassing the initial expectations of its climate commitments. There are early indications that emissions may be plateauing or even declining, suggesting that China could set more ambitious targets for 2035 with confidence.

Reassessing Emission Trajectories for Stronger Targets

China should aim for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 30% by 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement. This is feasible by building on current trends and policies.

Starting Point: Emission Trends and Existing Commitments

China accounts for 30% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions and has contributed to 90% of the growth in CO2 emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. Emissions growth accelerated in 2021-2023, highlighting the critical role China plays in global climate efforts. To align with the Paris Agreement’s goals, China must implement deep emissions cuts over the next decade, ensuring the credibility of its long-term carbon neutrality commitment.

However, the structure of China’s current goals allows for a slow pace of emissions reduction, with potential for high emissions levels to persist for another decade before a rapid decline. This approach has led to China’s commitments being rated as “highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker, a national climate plan evaluator. Additionally, China needs to formalize that its 2060 carbon neutrality target covers all greenhouse gases, a stipulation previously stated by the former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua but not yet included in official submissions.

Pathways to Align with the Paris Agreement

Various Chinese and international research groups have proposed pathways to meet China’s 2030 and 2060 commitments. These pathways depend on the global temperature targets pursued (e.g., 1.5°C or 2°C), assumptions about CO2 removal, burden-sharing among countries, and the costs of reducing emissions. Pathways that suggest modest emissions reductions in the next decade often assume significant overshoot of greenhouse gas concentrations, relying on large-scale carbon removal later. These pathways are risky, expensive, and likely implausible, hence excluded from our analysis.

A survey of published studies, summarized in the table below, indicates that to align with the 1.5°C target, China should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% from their peak by 2035. More ambitious scenarios call for reductions as deep as 80%, and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report suggests even larger reductions, with a median of more than 60%.

A Manageable Road to Emission Reductions

By focusing on sector-specific opportunities and building on existing trends and policies, China can achieve a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. This approach not only aligns with global climate goals but also enhances the credibility of China’s long-term carbon neutrality target.

As China’s emissions have risen over the years, achieving substantial reductions over the next decade might seem daunting to policymakers. However, building on existing trends, policies, and sector-specific targets makes a 30% reduction by 2035 not only feasible but also strategically sound. Breaking down the task by sector reveals clear pathways to this goal.

Transforming Steel: A Key Driver for Emission Reductions

China’s steel sector, producing 54% of the world’s steel, presents the most significant opportunity for emission reductions. Steel production in China relies heavily on coal-fired blast furnaces, making it the second-largest emitter after electricity generation. As steel demand in China peaks and the supply of recycled scrap steel increases, the potential to shift away from coal-based production grows.

China set ambitious targets in 2022 to increase the share of scrap steel in production to 30% and the share of steel made using electric arc furnaces to 15% by 2025. Projections from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association suggest that by 2035, electric arc steelmaking could exceed 30% of total production. Additionally, research from the Huaxia Dual Carbon Energy Research Institute and Tsinghua University indicates that steel output could fall by 10-20% by 2025 under the carbon neutrality pathway. This reduction, combined with increased electric arc steelmaking, could lead to a 40% reduction in the sector’s CO2 emissions by 2035.

To capitalize on this potential, China could set targets for clean, coal-free steelmaking as a share of total steel output.

The Power Sector’s Pivotal Role in Transition

The power sector, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a crucial role in the energy transition. It must expand to provide the electricity needed to replace oil in transportation and coal in industry and buildings, facilitating emissions reductions across multiple sectors.

After a record expansion of solar and wind in 2023, China is on track to peak its power-sector emissions and begin reducing them. Maintaining the renewable-energy addition levels achieved in 2023 would enable China to triple its renewable-energy capacity from 2022 to 2030, aligning with the global ambition set at COP28 in Dubai.

The clean-energy industries are optimistic about this growth. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts annual capacity additions of 225 gigawatts (GW) from 2024-2030 in their conservative scenario, slightly increasing from the 217 GW installed in 2023. In an optimistic scenario, this could accelerate to 280 GW per year. The wind industry indicates that China needs to install more than 50 GW of new wind power capacity annually from 2021-2025, and over 60 GW annually from 2026 onwards, to reach the carbon neutrality target. With capacity additions in 2023 already at 76 GW, this target seems modest. The China Hydropower Engineering Society projects that another 60 GW of conventional hydropower could be added by 2035.

Combining these projections, China’s renewable-power capacity could more than triple from 1,130 GW in 2022 to 3,400-3,800 GW by 2030. This expansion would enable a more than 20% reduction in coal-fired power generation and a 35% reduction in overall coal consumption, including other sectors, by 2035.

Strategic Targets for Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles

To ensure the success of its emissions reduction strategy, China should include new renewable or non-fossil energy targets in its updated NDCs. This would provide certainty for the industry and complement absolute emission targets. Promoting strong national targets for renewable-energy capacity and electric vehicles aligns with China’s interests, given its significant share in exports of these technologies and their importance for economic growth.

Here’s How Various Sectors Can Contribute to this Transformative Effort

While the steel sector is pivotal, other major energy-consuming industries in China offer substantial opportunities for cutting emissions.

Cement Production:

Cement is the third-largest emitter in China after power and steel. Since 2020, cement production and emissions have been on a downward trend. The China Building Materials Federation projects that demand will fall by over 10% by 2030, potentially reducing emissions by nearly 30% compared to 2020 levels by 2035. This aligns with China’s shift away from low-value infrastructure and real-estate projects.

Expanding CO2 Emissions Trading:

One strategic approach is to extend China’s CO2 emissions-trading system to all high-emitting industries. This aligns with the “Beautiful China” environmental policy goal of building an effective and influential carbon market by 2035.

Reducing Coal Mine Methane:

Coal mining not only contributes CO2 but also significant methane emissions, which account for 5% of China’s total greenhouse gas footprint. As coal consumption decreases, closing high-emission mines can cut methane emissions by 40% by 2035.

Phasing Out HFCs:

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases used in air conditioners and refrigerators, make up 1% of China’s emissions. Following the Kigali Amendment, China aims to phase out HFCs by 2045, which could halve these emissions by 2035.

Transport Sector Potential:

Maintaining transportation emissions at 2020 levels through 2035 would be a significant achievement. The “Beautiful China” policy sets a target of 45% of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in total vehicle sales by 2027, with a realistic target of 60% by 2035. This shift could substantially reduce oil consumption.

Freight Transportation:

Another target is to increase the share of freight transported by rail to 25% of total freight tonnage by 2035, reducing emissions from road and air transport.

Enhancing Carbon Sinks:

Renmin University modeling suggests that expanding forest coverage could increase China’s carbon sequestration capacity by 15% by 2035, supporting deeper emission cuts.

The Broader Impact: Aligning with Strategic Goals

Achieving significant emission reductions by 2035 is not just an environmental necessity but also aligns with China’s strategic goals. The year 2035 is targeted for realizing a modernized, socialist society and achieving “Beautiful China” objectives, including improved environmental quality and sustainable CO2 reductions post-emission peak.

Maintaining and accelerating the clean-energy drive, which saw massive investments in 2023, is essential for high-quality economic growth and technological leadership. It supports the 2035 goal of building a modernized economy by fostering new, clean industries while reducing reliance on high-energy, high-emission sectors.

Moreover, reducing fossil fuel consumption will improve air quality and ecological protection, crucial elements of the “Beautiful China” vision. Managing the phasedown of coal now ensures a smoother transition and avoids the challenges of a steeper reduction pathway in the future.

A Credible Commitment

China’s leadership has a track record of setting and achieving ambitious climate targets, such as the 2014 CO2-peaking target and the 2020 carbon neutrality target. These commitments have driven both domestic policy and international agreements like the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact.

To continue playing a constructive role in global climate negotiations, China should commit to substantial emission reductions aligned with the Paris Agreement. This means peaking emissions imminently and persistently reducing them through 2035. Doing so will not only make the 2060 carbon neutrality goal achievable and credible but also allow China’s world-leading clean-tech industries to thrive, driving economic growth and sustainability.